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John Downer 《Minerva》2017,55(2):229-248
Publics and policymakers increasingly have to contend with the risks of complex, safety-critical technologies, such as airframes and reactors. As such, ‘technological risk’ has become an important object of modern governance, with state regulators as core agents, and ‘reliability assessment’ as the most essential metric. The Science and Technology Studies (STS) literature casts doubt on whether or not we should place our faith in these assessments because predictively calculating the ultra-high reliability required of such systems poses seemingly insurmountable epistemological problems. This paper argues that these misgivings are warranted in the nuclear sphere, despite evidence from the aviation sphere suggesting that such calculations can be accurate. It explains why regulatory calculations that predict the reliability of new airframes cannot work in principle, and then it explains why those calculations work in practice. It then builds on this explanation to argue that the means by which engineers manage reliability in aviation is highly domain-specific, and to suggest how a more nuanced understanding of jetliners could inform debates about nuclear energy.  相似文献   
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The purpose of this study was to investigate the accuracy of fat-free mass (FFM) estimates from two-compartment (2C) models including air displacement plethysmography (ADP), ultrasound (US), near-infrared interactance (NIR), and the Jackson and Pollock skinfold equation (SKF) against a criterion four-compartment (4C) model in elite male rowers. METHODS: Twenty-three elite-level male rowers (mean± SD; age 24.6 ± 2.2 years; stature: 191.4 ± 7.2 cm; mass: 87.2 ± 11.2 kg) participated in this investigation. All body composition assessments were performed on the same day in random order, except for hydrostatic weighing (HW), which was measured last. FFM was evaluated using a 4C model, which included total body water from bioimpedance spectroscopy, body volume from HW, and total body bone mineral via dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. The major findings of the study were that the 2C models evaluated overestimated FFM and should be considered with caution for the assessment of FFM in elite male rowers. Future studies should use multiple-compartment models, with measurement of TBW and bone mineral content, for the estimation of FFM.  相似文献   
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This study examined whether or not activity monitor data collected as part of a typical 7-day physical activity (PA) measurement protocol can be expected to be missing at random. A total of 315 participants (9–18 years) each wore a SenseWear Armband monitor for 7 consecutive days. Participants were classified as “compliant” (86 boys and 124 girls) if they had recorded accelerometer data during 70% or more of the predefined awake time (7 AM–10 PM) on four different days; and “non-compliant” (44 boys and 51 girls) when not meeting these criteria. Linear mixed models were used to examine differences in energy expenditure (EE) levels by compliance across 10 different time periods. The results indicated that non-compliant girls were older (13.4 ± 2.9 vs. 12.2 ± 2.5) and taller (156.8 ± 10.3 vs. 152.8 ± 11.3) than their same gender compliant peers (P < .05). Comparisons of EE rates at segmented portions of the day revealed no differences between compliant and non-compliant groups (P ≥ .05). Differences in EE ranged from ?0.32 kcal · kg?1 · h?1 (before school time) to 0.62 kcal · kg?1 · h?1 (physical education class) in boys and ?0.39 kcal · kg?1 · h?1 (transportation from school) to 0.37 kcal · kg?1 · hour?1 (recess) in girls. The results showed that compliant and non-compliant individuals differed in a few demographic characteristics but exhibited similar activity patterns. This suggests that data were considered to be missing at random, but additional work is needed to confirm this observation in a representative sample of children using other types of activity monitors and protocols.  相似文献   
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